2025 is primarily focused on fixed income investments, as the Selic rate is at 15%. However, stock investors also have reasons to be happy. The Ibovespa has increased by 13% in the year, surpassing the accumulated CDI rate of 8.3% until August, and dividend distribution is experiencing a positive period.
The volume of distributed products increased significantly in the first half of the year compared to 2024. Additionally, some companies that had not paid dividends in a long time shared profits with their shareholders.
In the initial six months of 2025, there was a total distribution of profits, such as dividends and interest on equity (JCP), amounting to R$ 176 billion, marking an increase of approximately 6.8% compared to the corresponding period in 2024. This figure represents the highest sum reported since at least 2020, as revealed by data from the Meu Dividendo platform.
Much of the increase is due to companies resuming dividend payments and implementing more generous profit-sharing policies. Eletrobras, for example, recently announced its highest-ever dividend distribution of R $ 4.1 billion in a year, marking a 55.7% increase from the previous year.
The dividend yield for those who purchased the stock in early 2025 is 5%, which may seem low. However, when combined with the 26% increase in the stock price since then, the total return is 31%.
The plan is to maintain current payments, with economists predicting a 12-month forward dividend yield of 7.8% based on the current stock price, as reported on the Yahoo Finance platform.
Santander analysts project that the company’s recently announced dividend policy will result in distributing R$ 38 billion by 2030. BTG Pactual predicts a higher potential dividend payout ranging from R$ 74 billion to R$ 85 billion in the next five and a half years, based on energy prices.
The resumption of payments.
Several companies, including Eletrobras, have resumed participating in the market after settling outstanding debts or increasing profits. JBS paid R $ 8.87 billion in the first half of the year compared to R $ 4.4 billion in 2024, and Ambev spent R $ 10.6 billion during the same period, up from R$ 3.85 billion allocated to shareholders last year.
JBS is expected to have a 4.85% dividend yield over the next 12 months if the payments continue in the second half, while Ambev’s yield will be 7.01%.
Embraer, which had not distributed profits since 2018, resumed paying remuneration this year with a payment of R$ 51.4 million in May. The company indicates that it will continue this policy in the future, despite the low designed DY of 0.09%.
Companies in the education industry have gone through extensive restructuring processes following difficulties like the discontinuation of Fies, significant debt, and the effects of the pandemic. By 2025, they have stabilized financially, resumed growth, and shifted focus to distributing dividends.
The Cogna group, for instance, resumed distributing profits after a five-year break and distributed R$ 120.8 million in May. The company’s annual dividend yield (DY) stands at 9.30%.
The Educational Being distributed R$19.6 million to shareholders in the same month, marking the first payment of 2021. However, its dividend yield of 1.73% is lower compared to its competitors. YDUQS reinstated its 2019 dividend level this year, allocating R$150 million of the profit, resulting in an expected dividend yield of 4.38% over 12 months.
PagBank, a new player in the dividend market, made its debut by distributing profits to shareholders for the first time since its inception in 2018. The fintech paid out R $ 250 million to shareholders on June 6, with plans to allocate 10% of net profit annually. However, the initial distribution amounted to a 28% payout, and the company’s dividend policy limits distributions to 10% of profits. This has resulted in a projected 12-month dividend yield of only 1.60%, as reported by Yahoo Finance.
Vale was the sole company among the top three in the Brazilian market with the most shareholders to raise its product volume this year. In 2025, the mining company distributed R $ 18 billion in dividends and interest on equity (JCP) and plans to pay an additional R $ 8.6 billion in JCP in September.
The miner is expected to spend a total of R$ 36.7 billion in funds, which is R$ 16 billion more than the amount distributed in 2024. Consequently, the estimated annual dividend yield is projected to be 11.87%.
But some individuals let others down.
Despite the significant improvements seen this year, there were some discordant issues that arose in the previous swing season. The most notable one was from Petrobras, which revealed during the second-quarter results announcement its plan to distribute dividends and interim JCP totaling R$8.66 billion to be paid between November 21 and 22.
The number fell short of market expectations, with investors particularly concerned about the choice to not distribute additional dividends beyond the regular schedule.
The global oil barrel price dropped by 10% in the second quarter, impacting the oil tanker’s results, including product distribution. Fernando Melgarejo, the CFO of the tanker, mentioned a low likelihood of extraordinary dividends this year during the results teleconference. According to the Meu Dividendo portal, the company is expected to pay R $ 20 billion less. Despite the decrease, the projected dividend yield over 12 months is significant at 12.21% for preferred shares (PN) and 11.30% for common shares (ON).
The Banco do Brasil initially forecasted a net profit target of 37 billion to 41 billion for 2025, but revised it to 21 billion to 25 billion after a 60% drop in quarterly profit compared to the previous year. Additionally, they decreased the “payout” percentage from 40-45% to 30%.
Several analysis firms, including Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Itaú BBA, have forecasted a decrease in dividend and JCP payments this year, ranging from R $ 5 billion to R $ 8 billion. If BB achieves the average profit within the projected range and implements the new payout, it is expected to distribute slightly less than R $ 7 billion for the fiscal year.
The bank handed out approximately R$ 2.76 billion in the initial quarter, indicating it may need to disburse between R$ 3.5 billion and R$ 4.7 billion by March 2026 to adhere to the guidelines. The expected annual dividend yield dropped to 1.82%.
Predictions for the remainder of the year
Petrobras is expected to achieve a dividend yield of 10% to 12% in 2025, while Vale is projected to have a dividend yield ranging from 8% to 10% this year, as per BTG analysts’ estimates.
Several companies are scheduled to distribute dividends and JCP in August. Investors can benefit from these payments by owning company shares until the deadline to retain distribution rights. After this deadline, the shares become “ex-dividend,” meaning anyone who buys them afterward will not receive the announced dividends and will have to wait for the next distribution.
